
The BTV Bottom 50: Who are the least valuable trade candidates right now?
If you’re a GM, this is the list you don’t want to have your players on.
According to our calculations, the following 50 players have the least amount of trade value right now – or, put another way, the most amount of negative value. These are not necessarily bad players; they’re players whose contracts are bigger than their projected field value.
Not surprisingly, the common thread here is that most of them are older and past their prime. Only eight of these 50 players are under 30, which squares with the dominant trend of productive, valuable players skewing younger.
Note that we’ve ordered these from least valuable (or most underwater) to most valuable (or least underwater). Values are in $Ms.
The BTV Bottom 50:
- Miguel Cabrera, 36, Tigers: -126.9
- Chris Davis, 33, Orioles: -87.7
- Robinson Cano, 36, Mets: -83.3
- Albert Pujols, 39, Angels: -72.3
- Joey Votto, 35, Reds: -58.3
- Eric Hosmer, 29, Padres: -55.0
- Yu Darvish, 32, Cubs: -47.5
- Johnny Cueto, 33, Giants: -46.9
- Evan Longoria, 33, Giants: -45.9
- David Price, 33, Red Sox: -44.8
- Jason Heyward, 29, Cubs: -44.6
- Yoenis Cespedes, 33, Mets: -43.5
- Jacoby Ellsbury, 35, Yankees: -36.2
- Dexter Fowler, 33, Cardinals: -32.9
- Jordan Zimmermann, 33, Tigers: -31.5
- Dustin Pedroia, 35, Red Sox: -30.5
- Jon Lester, 35, Cubs: -29.1
- Alex Cobb, 31, Orioles: -27.8
- Nathan Eovaldi, 29, Red Sox: -26.6
- Wei-Yin Chen, 33, Marlins: -25.6
- Tyler Chatwood, 29, Cubs: -24.3
- Wil Myers, 28, Padres: -23.8
- Kyle Seager, 31, Mariners: -23.2
- Jeurys Familia, 29, Mets: -22.1
- Brett Cecil, 32, Cardinals: -22.0
- Ryan Braun, 35, Brewers: -22.0
- Ian Desmond, 33, Rockies: -20.5
- Shin-Soo Choo, 36, Rangers: -20.2
- Jeff Samardzija, 34, Giants: -19.7
- Ian Kennedy, 34, Royals: -18.4
- Andrew McCutchen, 32, Phillies: -18.3
- Yusei Kikuchi, 28, Mariners: -18.3
- Bryan Shaw, 34, Rockies: -18.1
- Yadier Molina, 36, Cardinals: -17.4
- Joe Kelly, 31, Dodgers: -16.9
- Jake McGee, 32, Rockies: -16.7
- Jake Arrieta, 33, Phillies: -16.4
- Kenley Jansen, 31, Dodgers: -15.4
- Zack Cozart, 33, Angels: -15.3
- Wade Davis, 33, Rockies: -14.9
- Danny Duffy, 30, Royals: -14.7
- Kelvin Herrera, 29, White Sox: -13.
- Dee Gordon, 31, Mariners: -12.9
- Felix Hernandez, 33, Mariners: -12.8
- A.J. Pollock, 31, Dodgers: -12.6
- David Robertson, 34, Phillies: -12.1
- Brandon Belt, 31, Giants: -10.2
- Jed Lowrie, 35, Mets: -9.7
Teams with the most underwater contract value in the Bottom 50:
- Mets: -158.6
- Tigers: -158.4
- Cubs: -145.5
- Giants: -122.7
- Orioles: -119.2
- Red Sox: -101.9
- Angels: -84.0
- Padres: -76.0
- Cardinals: -72.3
- Rockies: -70.2
- Mariners: -67.2
- Reds: -58.3
- Phillies: -46.8
- Dodgers: -44.9
- Royals: -40.3
- Yankees: -36.2
- Marlins: -25.6
- Brewers: -22.0
- Rangers: -20.2
- White Sox: -13.7
A few observations:
- Since Brodie van Wagenen took over as the GM of the Mets, he has brought on $115.1M of that underwater value through his own decision-making (he inherited the remaining -$43.5M).
- Most of the Tigers’ underwater value is borne by Miguel Cabrera.
- The Giants have quite a lot of work to do in their rebuild, given their likely motivation to both restock the farm and clear some of that underwater value.
- Clearly the Rockies’ strategy to invest heavily on reliever contracts has backfired. (In our view, because bullpen arms are so volatile and the churn so great, it’s best to take a shorter-term, lower-cost approach to that part of the team.)
If you’re a GM and your team is not on the list, chances are you’re doing just fine.

Sorry, what? This article is almost three years old, so these values have all changed.