The 2022-23 offseason was a relatively quiet one on the trade front. The biggest names to change teams were Sean Murphy, Daulton Varsho, Gabriel Moreno, Pablo Lopez and Luis Arraez - all excellent (and valuable) players, but sharing only a single All-Star Game appearance between them (Arraez, in 2022). And after those five, who appeared in three total trades, it was a large drop-off to the next biggest deal. Cole Irvin? Gregory Soto? Miguel Rojas?

That’s due in no small part to an active 2022 trade deadline which saw superstar Juan Soto switch teams earlier than most expected, in addition to trades of stars Luis Castillo and Josh Hader. The offseason prior, the Oakland A’s executed the bulk of their fire sale, offloading Matt Olson, Matt Chapman, Chris Bassitt and Sean Manaea.

Most of these blockbuster moves were somewhat predictable - at least, in the few months leading up to the deals. But as players report to Spring Training and optimism reigns supreme, the next big trade candidates aren’t quite as clear. Here’s an early breakdown of the stars who could be on the move at the 2023 deadline or during the 2023-24 offseason, and what they might cost in trade.

For this article, I made some adjustments on our back-end spreadsheets to estimate each player’s future trade value at two points in time, the upcoming deadline and next offseason. But stay tuned - this will soon become a premium feature of the site, allowing subscribers to see projected deadline values at a glance.

Shohei Ohtani - SP/DH, LAA

Point in Time	Age	Years	AFV	Salary	Surplus
2023 Deadline	29	0.3	57.1	10.0	47.1

Ohtani is The Big One. When a playoff contender adds a frontline starting pitcher or a 140 wRC+ hitter at the deadline, their fans are thrilled. Ohtani is both in one. The Angels have shored up their roster in the hopes of building a contender around Mike Trout and Ohtani in the latter’s final year of team control, and they’ve claimed to intend to sign Ohtani long-term. But barring a deep playoff run, it’s hard to imagine Ohtani forgoing the open market - and a possible $500M+ deal - to stay in town.

Every contender will have a spot for Ohtani, and the bidding could get crazy. His projected $47.1M value at the deadline is an insanely high price for a rental, and it’s even possible that we’re low here. All it takes is a single A.J. Preller to push in all his chips and blow everyone out of the water. But for now, given his lofty $30 million salary for 2023 (of which he would still be owed roughly $10 million if traded at the deadline), we’re confident in this estimate.

Bryan Reynolds - OF, PIT

Point in Time	Age	Years	AFV	Salary	Surplus
2023 Deadline	28	2.3	81.3	29.3	52.0
2023-24 Offseason	29	2.0	62.7	27.1	35.6

It’s still possible Reynolds is moved in the weeks between now and Opening Day - the Los Angeles Dodgers, for instance, could use another impact bat after losing Trea Turner and Gavin Lux to free agency and injury respectively. But the Pirates held onto the outfielder through a tumultuous offseason that included a large gap in extension talks and a blatant trade request from Reynolds himself. It seems the team and the player are on good enough terms to at least open the season together. But barring a drastic change of events, Reynolds will likely be suiting up for another club sooner rather than later.

Teams like the Miami Marlins have been interested for well over a year at this point and have been unable to agree with Pittsburgh on a deal. It’s likely the Pirates are pointing to Reynolds’ breakout 2021 season when he was worth 6.1 fWAR and his center field defense ranked in the 98th percentile according to Statcast Outs Above Average. Interested teams, on the other hand, may be hesitant due to his lackluster 2022, in which he produced just 2.9 fWAR and his defense tanked to the 6th percentile.

Regardless, Reynolds offers above average production at a premium production with few viable alternatives available on the market. Between this and his three affordable years of control remaining, our model expects him to command a nice return for Pittsburgh.

Corbin Burnes - SP, MIL

Point in Time	Age	Years	AFV	Salary	Surplus
2023 Deadline	28	1.3	79.1	18.3	60.8
2023-24 Offseason	29	1.0	52.9	15.0	37.9

Brandon Woodruff - SP, MIL

Point in Time	Age	Years	AFV	Salary	Surplus
2023 Deadline	30	1.3	58.3	19.8	38.5
2023-24 Offseason	31	1.0	38.5	16.2	22.3

Freddy Peralta - SP, MIL

Point in Time	Age	Years	AFV	Salary	Surplus
2023 Deadline	27	3.3	87.3	22.7	64.6
2023-24 Offseason	27	3.0	74.9	21.5	53.4

The Milwaukee Brewers are something of a perpetual bubble team: always good enough to contend in a weak NL Central division, but never quite complete enough to make a serious run into October. Their 2023 roster is no different, boasting their usual mix of exciting frontline starting pitching alongside a truly lackluster lineup.

One thing the Brewers do have, however, is an exciting wave of young offensive talent starting to make its way to Milwaukee. Infielder Brice Turang is likely to take over for recently traded Kolten Wong at second base, and a trio of promising young outfield prospects in Garrett Mitchell, Joey Wiemer and Sal Frelick are ready for a shot at the starting lineup - with young phenom Jackson Chourio only a year or two behind.

With that in mind, it is very easy to envision the Brewers taking a page out of the Cleveland Guardians’ playbook and flipping one of their talented starting pitchers to bolster their up-and-coming offensive core. Burnes in particular would command a haul, and the 2021 Cy Young Award winner has already publicly voiced his displeasure with Milwaukee leadership after losing his arbitration case against the team this winter. On the other hand, Peralta has been very effective and is locked up on an incredibly affordable contract, but has struggled to stay on the field. As something of a happy medium between the two, Woodruff might be a player the Brewers would prefer to extend, but his consistency and durability will be very attractive to teams in need of starting pitching.

There has been a little buzz in recent years about the Brewers potentially moving a starter, similar to the noise every offseason and trade deadline regarding closer Josh Hader. Last deadline, with Hader starting to get too expensive to keep, the Brewers made their move. And looking forward, with this trio of starters inching closer and closer to free agency, their time in Milwaukee may soon be up as well.

Shane Bieber - SP, CLE

Point in Time	Age	Years	AFV	Salary	Surplus
2023 Deadline	28	1.3	65.1	18.3	46.8
2023-24 Offseason	28	1.0	43.8	15.0	28.8

Speaking of the Guardians, it’s somewhat surprising Bieber has even stayed in Cleveland this long. He’s been with the team long enough to watch a half dozen other quality arms get traded away, only for no-name prospects to step in and fill those spots in the rotation with ease. Is Bieber the exception, the rare player the Guardians choose to keep in town long-term? Or should he start packing his bags?

The right-hander has weathered an alarming velocity drop (losing nearly 3mph on his fastball since his 2020 Cy Young season) but has remained nearly as effective. The Guardians have established a clear pattern of opting to trade their star players too early rather than too late, and could make a similar move with Bieber as early as this season.

If the Guardians choose to do so, they’ll receive valuable pieces to add to their already strong young core. Other teams may have concerns about Bieber’s velo dip, but last year the New York Yankees and Minnesota Twins gave up significant prospect packages to acquire Frankie Montas and Tyler Mahle respectively, despite each righty having recently spent time on the injured list with a shoulder injury. At the deadline especially, the need for starting pitching trumps all.

Bieber will likely be about as valuable at the 2023 deadline as Luis Castillo was at the 2022 deadline ($41.2M). However, don’t hold your breath for a similar overpay like the return Cincinnati received ($63.1M in total value).

David Bednar - RHRP, PIT

Point in Time	Age	Years	AFV	Salary	Surplus
2023 Deadline	28	3.3	35.4	13.2	22.2
2023-24 Offseason	29	3.0	30.4	13.0	17.4

Alexis Diaz - RHRP, CIN

Point in Time	Age	Years	AFV	Salary	Surplus
2023 Deadline	26	4.3	37.1	16.0	21.1
2023-24 Offseason	27	4.0	33.9	15.8	18.1

Relievers are extremely volatile, but as of now, these two appear to be the cream of the crop when it comes to controllable late-inning arms. It would behoove the Reds and Pirates, each multiple years away from contending, to move these two while their value is high and the market is hot.

The clock is especially ticking with Bednar, who will be arbitration eligible following the 2023 season and is coming off back-to-back excellent seasons. Diaz is younger and isn’t as proven, so the Reds may prefer to keep him until the 2023-24 offseason, the 2024 deadline or perhaps even longer, allowing him to fully establish himself as a dominant high-leverage talent. The risk, of course, is that he flames out or becomes injured in that span, and his trade value is significantly diminished or lost entirely.

Brandon Lowe - 2B, TB

Point in Time	Age	Years	AFV	Salary	Surplus
2023 Deadline	29	3.3	58.6	32.5	26.1
2023-24 Offseason	29	3.0	49.4	30.8	18.6

Andrés Giménez - 2B, CLE

Point in Time	Age	Years	AFV	Salary	Surplus
2023 Deadline	24	3.3	79.0	41.3	37.7
2023-24 Offseason	25	3.0	67.9	41.1	26.8

Willy Adames - SS, MIL

Point in Time	Age	Years	AFV	Salary	Surplus
2023 Deadline	27	1.3	46.4	16.0	30.4
2023-24 Offseason	28	1.0	30.5	13.1	17.4

Tim Anderson - SS, CWS

Point in Time	Age	Years	AFV	Salary	Surplus
2023 Deadline	30	1.3	52.3	18.2	34.1
2023-24 Offseason	30	1.0	34.2	14.0	20.2

These four can be grouped together as All-Star caliber middle infielders whose teams are, to varying degrees, on the bubble of playoff contention and tend to be more budget-conscious than other teams.

That Lowe hasn’t already been traded may speak more to the lack of development among Tampa Bay’s middle infield prospects than it does to any affinity the team might have for Lowe himself. The Rays likely hoped one of Vidal Brujan, Xavier Edwards, Taylor Walls, Greg Jones or Jonathan Aranda would have seized the second base job by now, but all have struggled to varying degrees (and Edwards was traded to Miiami). Lowe also had a rough 2022, but he has four more years of relatively affordable team control, and if he bounces back and the team can find cheaper production elsewhere on the roster, he could very well be moved. One caveat: the Rays’ lineup is very right-handed heavy, making Lowe an important lefty power bat to balance things out.

Giménez broke out in a big way in 2022, his first season as the Guardians’ full-time second baseman. His high trade value despite our model’s aggressive second base positional adjustment is a testament to his talent. Cleveland has a glut of middle infield prospects waiting for MLB playing time, though one would imagine Amed Rosario would be on his way out of town long before the team seriously considered a Giménez deal.

The Brewers could move one of their top arms and still have a strong rotation, but Adames is a tougher sell. Milwaukee doesn’t have much in terms of shortstop depth, and Adames is a solid player on both sides of the ball. Still, perhaps the team would consider moving him if it received a talented shortstop prospect as part of the package, or perhaps headlining the return for a separate deal for one of its starting pitchers.

Anderson is arguably the face of the White Sox, but as Chicago’s competitive window appears to be drawing to a close, so might his time with the team. He missed about half of the 2022 season due to injury and saw his power dip, but he remains a solid contact hitter with clear BABIP abilities. Anderson might not be able to stick at shortstop deep into his 30s, but he should be at least passable at the position throughout the remaining two years of his contract. If the White Sox are out of contention at the deadline, Anderson is certainly an easier player to move than Yoan Moncada or Luis Robert.

Randy Arozarena - OF, TB

Point in Time	Age	Years	AFV	Salary	Surplus
2023 Deadline	28	3.3	84.6	32.9	51.7
2023-24 Offseason	29	3.0	72.2	31.6	40.6

Tyler Stephenson - C/1B, CIN

Point in Time	Age	Years	AFV	Salary	Surplus
2023 Deadline	26	3.3	52.9	19.5	33.4
2023-24 Offseason	27	3.0	45.0	19.3	25.7

Tarik Skubal - SP, DET

Point in Time	Age	Years	AFV	Salary	Surplus
2023 Deadline	26	3.3	62.1	24.5	37.6
2023-24 Offseason	27	3.0	54.1	24.3	29.8

These three are wild cards, each interesting players in their own rights playing for teams who aren’t afraid to make a deal, but each with a trait - either good or bad - that could make a trade unlikely.

Arozarena is in a very similar spot to Lowe: a solid player entering his more expensive years of control for a Rays team that isn’t afraid to move pieces around. Arozarena, however, is a right-handed hitter, perhaps making him an easier player for Tampa Bay to part with. But the team’s outfield depth is all but nonexistent, barring a Josh Lowe breakout. Also, the new pickoff rules and larger bases could make Arozarena’s aggressive baserunning even more valuable to a savvy team like Tampa Bay.

The Reds will be limiting Stephenson’s time behind the plate in 2023 in an attempt to keep him healthy. That might not be the worst thing in the world, as Stephenson’s framing graded well below average in 2022 according to Statcast, but his above average bat doesn’t play up quite as well at first base. If this is a temporary change to ease the young slugger back into a more regular catching role for the 2024 season and beyond, then he’ll have plenty of suitors. But if this is the start of a more permanent move into a first base/designated hitter role, his value - and market - may be more limited.

The Tigers were absolutely snakebitten in 2022. Skubal was arguably the highlight of an absolutely dreadful season in Detroit, and even his year was marred by a season-ending elbow surgery. In a perfect world, he’s healthy and pitching like his 2022 self for the Tigers by the All-Star break, and will then be a highly sought-after arm in the 2023-24 offseason or at the 2024 deadline. But given their recent luck, Tigers fans likely aren’t holding their breath.