With the August 2nd trade deadline just over a month away, there are plenty of interesting players who might be changing teams. Frankie Montas and Luis Castillo lead the starting pitching market. The Oakland A’s could also move Sean Murphy or Ramon Laureano, each with multiple years of team control remaining. The Chicago Cubs, with Willson Contreras, Ian Happ, David Robertson and more, could really make some noise. David Bednar would be a massive bullpen addition for any contender.

But even with all those exciting names available and many more soon to be on the block, a certain segment of MLB fans and media can’t stop talking about one player: Juan Soto.

The buzz has died down a bit. But it once got to the point where Washington Nationals GM Mike Rizzo had to publicly shoot down the rumors – on June 1, a full two months ahead of the deadline.

At first glance, it’s easy to see why rival fans (and executives) would be clamoring over the possibility of a Soto trade. At 26-48, the Nationals, well, stink. According to our model, their farm system is the sixth weakest in baseball. Theoretically, the prospect haul they would receive in a Soto deal could revitalize that farm and jumpstart their rebuild.

Their financial situation is also concerning. Soto is under team control through 2024, but figures to earn record arbitration figures in each of the next two years. The team will pay starting pitchers Stephen Strasburg and Patrick Corbin a combined $60 million in 2023 and $70 million in 2024, and are then on the hook for two additional seasons of Strasburg at $35 million apiece. And that’s not to mention Max Scherzer’s deferred money! It’s no wonder ownership is reportedly considering a sale, yet another variable which only further complicates the franchise’s future.

And on top of it all, Soto is in the midst of the worst season of his young career. He’s slashing .214/.363/.433, and while his batted ball data is much more encouraging and that line is still good for a 124 wRC+, it’s still a far cry from his Ted Williams-esque 151 career mark.

Despite his struggles, Soto’s median trade value stands at a whopping $190.9M. That might seem like a great sign, a number to salivate at while dreaming of the size of a potential return. But it’s actually the number that makes Juan Soto untradeable.

No team can reasonably afford that price tag. In fact, that number outpaces 14 entire farm system totals. Nearly half of the teams in Major League Baseball could send their entire farm system to Washington and still not be able to meet that price.

Of the remaining 15 teams, a few can drop right off the board. Selling the farm for two and a half years of Soto wouldn’t make any real sense for the Arizona Diamondbacks, Baltimore Orioles, Chicago Cubs, Miami Marlins or Colorado Rockies.

We’re down to 10. But the Nationals aren’t about to trade Soto and is $190.9M value for 19 prospects worth $10M each; that isn’t realistic, nor would a quantity-over-quality return to that extreme make any kind of sense for Washington. Even if, say, the Los Angeles Dodgers traded their top six prospects for Soto – the most our simulator will allow – they only come to $139.3M.

In prospects alone, the only team that could even come close would be the Boston Red Sox. But it would cost them their top six prospects – Marcelo Mayer ($55.4M), Triston Casas ($48.8M), Nick Yorke ($37.7M), Brayan Bello ($23.5M), Blaze Jordan ($7.6M) and Wikelman Gonzalez ($6.6M) – just to reach $179.6M. And the Red Sox have their own future concerns, with Chris Sale and Trevor Story signed to lengthy contracts and Xander Bogaerts, JD Martinez, Rafael Devers and Nate Eovaldi each set to hit free agency within the next two years.

But that’s just prospects. What if we put some valuable young big leaguers on the table as well? The Nationals would likely only want to target players with at least four full seasons of team control remaining after 2022. A budding ace like Alek Manoah ($102.0M) or a rookie phenom like Julio Rodriguez ($93.6M) would get their team a good chunk of the way to Soto. But would the Blue Jays or Mariners, or any other team in that position, really trade an affordable future star *and* other quality prospects for two and a half expensive years of Soto? Plus, Soto is still just 23 years old. Manoah is nine months older!

So that $190.9M mark is going to be nearly impossible to reach. What if the Nationals brought it down? Corbin (-$58.6M) and Strasburg’s (-$154.5M) values are both deeply underwater, and certainly the team would love to get out from under their contracts. It might even make the franchise more attractive to a potential buyer.

Corbin’s inclusion in particular doesn’t make much sense for Washington. If the Nationals are to trade Soto, it would largely be because they don’t believe they can contend again before he hits free agency (or afford to extend him; more on that later). Corbin’s contract expires after the 2024 season, the same time Soto would hit free agency. If the Nationals don’t think they can contend in 2023 or 2024 with Soto, then why would there be any urgency to free up budget in those years if they’re trading Soto anyway?

An argument could be made for Strasburg, whose contract could truly hamstring the team for years to come. He’s currently the least valuable player in baseball according to our model. Few teams, if any, would take his full contract, and it wouldn’t make sense for the Nationals to drag Soto’s value into the $30M range trying to move it all.

What if the Nationals ate half of Strasburg’s $161.2 million remaining salary? That would bring the trade package to $117.0M total value, still a very reasonable haul and one that might be more attainable for other teams. But it’s still a huge ask – over $100 million in prospect value, plus $17.5 million of sunk cost salary for the next four and a half years. And that doesn’t even count Soto’s future salaries, as any team giving up such a large package for him would likely look to extend him long-term.

Finally, there’s the optics of it all. The Nationals’ current owners, the Lerners, likely wouldn’t want their image tarnished by trading a young superstar and potential future Hall of Famer on their way out the door. Likewise, new ownership won’t want their first impression to be refusing to pay a franchise player market rate and forcing him out the door instead.

A Juan Soto trade just doesn’t make sense right now. Jose Ramirez was in a similar situation the last few years, prior to his recent extension. He was a constant presence in trade rumors, but between his talent, age and affordable contract, he was just too valuable to be traded. It wasn’t until this past offseason, with just two years remaining on his contract, that Cleveland reportedly started to line up trades in case they were unable to extend him.

It will take Soto longer to get to that point, mainly because he is six years younger. But he’ll get there, and there’s no reason for the Nationals to trade him early for a subpar return – the only kind they could possibly receive at this point.

Instead, they can keep trying to extend him. He reportedly rejected a 13-year, $350 million offer, which definitely appears low. After a very rough arbitration estimate for his next two seasons, that comes out to about a $26 million average annual value over 11 years, his age 26 through 36 seasons. That’s certainly low – as a free agent, he might command $40-45 million annually for that span. But perhaps there’s a middle ground, especially if he’s willing to take a small discount with the team he won his first championship with, and maybe new ownership will really open up the check books a la Steve Cohen with the Mets.

But even if the Nationals can’t extend Soto, there is no reason to trade him at this point. His value is as high as it will ever be, but there’s no chance they will be able to receive full market value in return right now. It is incredibly likely that the highest bid for Soto today will not fundamentally differ too much from the highest bid a year from now.